Yes, it's my weekly post on the subject that no one wants to read... NFL Sunday Football!
As usual, the games on in the Bay Area suck. 10am: Oakland @ Washington, 1pm: Seattle @ SF. While both local teams suck (again) at least they're playing a pair of decent teams. Seattle might be the best team in the NFC, this year, and I've never seen them play yet, so I'll probably tape that one and watch it in the evening, while I work on other things during the afternoon. I got nothing done today (though I'll be working on the novel for the next few hours) since I was at the gym with Malaya and then out running errands and doing some shopping. I did get some cool new shoes though, so I can't really complain. Our errands weren't critical or anything, I just wanted to spend some time with her since she's going to be gone all day tomorrow, and then I'm leaving Wednesday morning to drive to Death Valley, where I'm vacationing over T-day with my mom and stepdad. More on that later.
As for the NFL, I spent numerous posts earlier this year griping about the shitty games on here, and yeah, they're still shitty, but what's to gripe about? There's obviously an NFL TV rule that local teams must be shown, if possible, without any competing games. I think it's an asine rule; why force us to watch the meaningless mismatch of the 49ers getting slaughtered by Seattle when everyone else in the country is enjoying the Indy@Cin game of the week? Hell, there are at least 4 or 5 much better early games than Oak@Wash, for that matter. Is it all some sort of scheme to sell more people on the pay per view NFL Sunday Ticket, where you get to see every game? Why don't both CBS and FOX show games early and late, and if people want to watch the team from their geographical area they can, and if they don't, they've got another option?
That aside, I'm feeling less interested in the NFL since the AFC playoff spots are essentially locked up, even with barely half the season gone. There are now 4 divisions in each conference (
standings here). The four division winners get automatic playoff spots, and the next two best records in each conference get a wildcard. The problem there is that if one or two divisions have a bad year, there are likely going to be division winners with worse records than other teams who don't even make the playoffs. The other problem is that some divisions suck, and since schedules include teams playing all four teams in various other divisions, some teams have absurdly easy schedules this year.
The easiest examples are Indianapolis and Jacksonville, 9-0 and 6-3 at this point, respectively. They each get to play two games against woeful division "rivals" Tennessee and Houston, and then get four games against the NFC West. Jacksonville has actually had a pretty tough schedule thus far, and they've done well to come out of it 6-3. Two wins in overtime didn't hurt there. From here on out though, their schedule is ridiculous. They play 2-7 Tenn twice, 2-7 Arizona, 2-7 SF, 3-6 Cleveland, and 1-8 Houston, with only a game against 9-0 Indy breaking up the absurdity. How can they have 7 games left, with 6 of them against teams with an average record of 2-7? Now sure, some of those teams might improve over the rest of the year, and it's unlikely Jacksonville will win all six games, though they'll certainly be favored to do so. But they could easily win all seven (the Indy game is in Jacksonville), and seem almost sure to win at least 5.
So that's one wildcard spot there (Jacksonville is 3 games behind Indy, so not likely to catch up there), and the other looks to be between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who are tied at 7-2 in the AFC North. Neither of those teams has a complete cakewalk the rest of the way, but of their remaining 7 games, only 3 are against teams with a winning record. However they play each other, and obviously one of them is going to win that one. Pitt and Cin will both be easy favorites in probably 5 of their remaining games, they're both 7-2 now, and one of them is going to win the division and get an automatic playoff spot. The other just needs to go 4-3 and they're almost certain to make one of the wildcard spots.
So that's it. The AFC playoffs are set, with 44% of the season yet to play. Indy, Denver, the winner of the weak AFC East (New England, most likely), Pitt/Cin with one getting the wildcard, and Jacksonville with the easiest schedule in the league crusing to the other wildcard, or possibly threatening Indy if the Colts completely fall apart with their tough 2nd half schedule. The only other teams with any shot at all are San Diego and Kansas City, both at 5-4 now, but both with far, far tougher schedules than Jacksonville, and Jacksonville is already a game up on both of them. Pitt or Cin might falter, but they'd have to, with 2 game leads to squander. Really, the best hope for KC/SD is to catch Denver and win the AFC West. That goal is complicated by the fact that Denver is also 2 games ahead, and has already beaten KC and SD head to head. Further complications come from their schedules.
SD's is harsh,
KC's is impossible.
KC blew a must-win last week at Buffalo, and after a freebie this week in Houston, they meet the death march. NE, Denver, @Dallas, @NYG, SD, Cincinnati. That's six straight teams, all with winning records and playoff aspirations. Good luck, kids.
SD had about the hardest schedule in the league through their first nine games, and came out of that 5-4, though they'll spend this offseason thinking about what could have been. They gave away a game in Denver they led 14-3 at half, they lost to Philly on a blocked FG and late fumble, and they lost to Dallas and Pittsburgh after leading in the 4th quarter. Four losses by a total of 12 points. Flip 1 or 2 of those and they'd be right there with Jacksonville for the wildcard and Denver for the division. Instead they're on life support with 3 winnable home games (Buffalo, Oakland, Miami), 3 tough road games (Washington, Indy, KC), and a finale at home against Denver. SD's only (faint) hope is to go like 5-1 over their next six, picking up a game on Denver in the process, and then beating them the last game to tie at 11-5 and win the division on a tie-breaker. (First tie-breaker, head to head, 2nd, conference record; SD is now 2-1, Denver is 3-0.)
So no, I suppose the AFC isn't as wrapped up as it appears at a glance, but the only way anything changes from how it is now is for one or two of the leading teams to stumble badly,
and for SD or KC to play almost perfectly the rest of the way. And since KC's schedule is anti-Jacksonville's, and SD's already down a head to head tie-breaker to Pitt, they can only hope to tie and tie-breaker out Cin or Jax for the wildcard, or do the same to Denver for the division.
The NFC, fortunately, has three 6-3 and one 5-4 teams now competing for two wild card spots (and their division titles, of course), so there should be intrigue and crucial games all the way out. And, thanks to the somewhat ill-advised 4 divisions of 4 teams realignment, we'll likely get the awkwardness of an 8-8 or 9-7 Chicago and New England making the playoffs, while teams like San Diego, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and the NY Giants finish with 10 or 11 wins and miss out entirely. Those teams may expect condolence cards from the Phillies, Marlins, and Mets, all of whom
finished with better records than NL West winning San Diego, and were rewarded by getting an early start on their off seasons while the Padres
assumed the fetal position against the Central-winning Cardinals.
Oh, and the Sunday night and Monday night NFL games suck too, this week. Bleh. At least there are a couple of good games on T-day -- not that I'll be anywhere near a TV to enjoy them.
