Just to make my pics before the games start, this weekend.
Indy (+4) @ Baltimore. I'm actually kind of shocked at the odds on this one; I figured Baltimore would be at least a TD favorite, the way Indy finished out the season. Did their easy win over the uncoached Chiefs win all their wavering fans back, or what? I'd thought to pick Baltimore to win but Indy to cover, just figuring Indy's defense might remain charged up after finally playing a good game, but with Baltimore just a 4 point favorite, that seems foolish. I can't see Baltimore scoring more than about 24 though, unless they do some of it on defense, and surely Indy can manage 20 so long as Payton doesn't actually get knocked out of the game? Who knows, maybe his annual playoff stinker game was last week, with 3 picks, but an easy win thanks to KC's ineptitude? I can't pick 24-20 since that would be a push with the spread, so I'll go
23-17, Baltimore.
Philly (+5) @ New Orleans. They played earlier this season when both teams were doing well and New Orleans won by 3. I don't see this one being all that different. Last week everyone thought KC@Indy would be a wild shootout with 30+ required to win. It was something like 23-8. This week everyone thinks this game will be a shootout, and maybe it will, and maybe it'll repeat last week's history. I'd love a 40-35 barn burner, personally, but teams often get conservative and defenses stiffen in the playoffs, so I'll moderate.
27-20, Saints.
Seattle (+8.5) @ Chicago. I would strongly consider picking either Philly or New Orleans over the disintegrating Bears, but Seattle was by far the worst of this year's playoff teams, and they did little last week to change that perception, despite winning on a fumbled field goal snap. This game is by far the least interesting matchup of the weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those 6-7, 7 interception, 14 punt puke fests that make me very glad I record the games and watch them later, rather than sitting through 3.5 hours of failure. I say Chicago plays well at least for one week of the playoffs, then prays for bad weather next week to make the visiting Saints or Eagles as slow and bad at offense as they are. That's their best hope, though since the Superbowl is in Miami, that'll probably be the end of the line for them.
18-10, Chicago.
New England (+5) @ San Diego. They played last year and San Diego destroyed the Patriots something like 44-20. LT ran wild, SD's pass rush ate Brady alive, SD threw the ball well, SD's defense came up big, etc. That was about the low point in the NE season though, and that was the regular season, and that was when Brees was the SD QB. Rivers is in now, and this is his first playoff game, and NE's coach is a master schemer at thwarting opposing QBs in the playoffs. I don't think he can outcoach the talent edge SD has on the offensive and defensive lines though, and I don't think Brady's nickle and dime passing to no-name receivers will be enough to keep up with SD's offense. SD scored like 8 points more per game than NE did this year, I think Schottenheimer has learned from his past overly-conservative playoff failures, and this game will be the surprise blowout of the weekend.
42-20, San Diego.Update: Late 3rd quarter of the NE@SD game, and man, I thought the last Chargers' playoff loss was painful, when they gave a game away against NYJ 2 years ago. This one is going to hurt far worse. SD is still winning 14-10, but they just fumbled a punt when there wasn't a coverage man within 20 yards of the return man, and there's no earthly way SD should have less than 24 points at this point. They've been past midfield on like 7 drives, twice been sacked out of field goal range (any hot reads in the playbook when NE lines up 8 guys to blitz?), dropped passes, caught a TD a yard out of bounds, and kept NE from doing anything except when SD went into a dubious prevent defense during the last 2 minutes of the half which led directly to NE going 70 yards in 2 minutes. A team can not screw up this many scoring opportunities in a playoff game against the Patriots and hang on to win... can they?
Update #2: As I hit "post," SD sacks Brady, he fumbles, it's 4th and forever, and some random SD defensive back nowhere near the play gets a personal foul, giving NE the first down and putting them back in FG range. *sigh*
Update #3: San Diego stops NE on 4th and 5 with an interception, then fumbles on the same play giving NE a first down that turns into a TD and a tie game. So that's 11 of NE's 21 points on a fumbled punt and fumbled interception. I'll be shocked if this goes to OT -- NE will win in regulation the way their luck is holding.
Update #4: Malaya got home from the gym while SD was on their final "try to tie the game" drive. I gave her the litany of ridiculous, once-in-a-season outrages SD has faced today, and we watched as SD managed a long pass to get into long FG range. As the graphic came up showing their kicker had made 25 straight kicks at home, I said, "I guarantee you he'll miss this." There was no way SD would make a clutch play in a game that had gone this way. And of course he left it wide right.
Meanwhile, Malaya's chattering away about how she saw NE's last TD at the gym and how it was pretty... this is why hospitals call SuperBowl Sunday, "Domestic Violence Day." I suppose this makes up for all the times I've made, "but can they save the cheerleader's virginity?" jokes and heckled the comb over while she's watching Heroes or The Apprentice or other shows she enjoys and I tolerate.
Labels: football
