BlackChampagne.com -- No longer new; improvement also in question.

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	BlackChampagne -- no longer new; improvement also in question.: Monday and Football. Tuesday, October 18, 2005 Monday and Football. I'm not sure where the day went. I got up at a reasonable time, and I did some yoga, and then I ran some errands, and when I got home Malaya was at the gym, and when she got home we did some Kali and then I went to the gym, and I cooked once I got home while the Monday Night Football game finishing taping, and then we hung out on the couch for a while, and then she went to bed and I watched MNF on tape, and here it is, 3am and I've done nothing of any substance all day. Imagine once we're married with kids and all the attendant, time-consuming bullshit they bring into life? shudder Anyway, the MNF game wasn't much fun past halftime, though it was instructive. It was too bad that the Rams QB got injured in the 2nd quarter, since that ended any hope they had of winning, since they had to keep scoring to stay ahead of the Colts, even after being spotted a 17-0 lead. They didn't, and once the backup QB started throwing passes up for grabs in the second half it got ugly in a hurry, and went from 17-0 to 20-45 in nothing flat. As I said, the game was instructive though, in two ways: 1) We now know that Mike Martz coaching is in fact better than a dead man. Even though he frequently costs his team the game with insane play calling and challenges, at least he's got a pulse and some guts, and would have at least tried to do something to change the momentum of the game when the Colts began steamrolling to their comeback. 2) I'd often wondered how it would work if a team played in a prevent defense for an entire game against a quality offense like the Colts'. Now I know. They'd stop any plays from going for more than 20 yards, but with only 3 or 4 guys on the line they'd give up at least 8 yards per rush, and every single time the offense threw a pass shorter than 10 yards, it would be caught by an essentially uncovered receiver. It looked for a time like we'd get #3, and see how this year's Colts' team fared against an opponent with a pulse, and how their defense did against a real offense. Early results have to be encouraging to the rest of the league, with the Rams sprinting out to a huge lead, thanks largely to a fumbled kick off. But then their QB threw a pick, got hurt trying to make the tackle, and that was that. Predictable running and short pass plays took over the Rams' offense after that, and anyone can defend against that sort of wimpiness. It's not the Colts' fault their schedule is so easy; it's mostly luck and their weak division that is letting them go into November without a single decent opponent (that and the fact that Jacksonville wasn't playing well yet when they lost to the Colts in week 2), and more luck that New England has been devastated by injuries for a second straight year. Things do eventually get interesting for the Colts though, starting in week 11 when they play @ Cincinnati, host Pittsburgh, host Tennessee, @ Jacksonville, host San Diego, and @ Seattle, before closing out with a freebie (hosting Arizona). Their ridiculously light early schedule and hard finish make me wonder though; which is better for a successful team, in whatever sport? Is it better to streak out to a 7-0 record built by playing one quality team in 2 months, while saving a stretch of 5 tough games in 6 weeks for the end, when you've already pretty well clinched a playoff spot? Or do you want to go through hell early on, come out of that at 3-3 or whatever, before gaining strength and confidence every week during a long winning streak against pushovers? Which builds more confidence? Which is more likely to have your team playing well come playoffs? Which is better to avoid injuries and fatigue over a long season? It's worth study (not that I'm going to study it), but it would have to be calculated carefully. It wouldn't be hard to check win/loss records and see teams that won many more early season vs. late season, and then how they did in the playoffs, but that's superficial. You'd also have to factor in strength of schedule, figure if they had a streak of good luck or bad luck that skewed the results, note their injuries, etc. In theory, I'd think a team on a late season winning streak would be a better bet, since they are, in theory, playing their best ball then, and you expect that to carry over into the playoffs. But what about teams that dominated early and got a big enough lead that they lost focus and stumbled near the end, or that were far enough ahead to rest their best players the last week or two. Could they then turn it back on in the playoffs, and play even better, being rested and ready? Posted by: Flux # 3:06 AM Comments: I'm not sure which is better, but the answer to your last question is "yes." One of those Broncos Super Bowl teams (that won) did that, while a previous incarnation of the Broncos lost to Jacksonville at home in the playoffs after resting the starters during the last week. How was Jacksonville not playing their best ball against the Colts in week 2? That game came down to the last drive. I thought the Jaguars played a very good game. #: 9:26 AM posted by Anonymous Well, Jax won their opener against Seattle, then lost an offenseless game to the Colts, then scraped past the Jets, then lost badly to Denver in week 4. They've since won 2 straight against very good teams, so are in theory on an upswing, but that's quite debatable, now that I look at their schedule. They've won twice by 6 in overtime, and won another by 3, they're clearly not exactly blowing people away. Seattle win and Denver loss aside, they've played 4 very close games that could have gone either way, and one of those was against the Colts. In retrospect, the Jax game was more out of character for the Colts, now that they seem to have put their early season (intentional?) offensive sluggishness behind them. #: 4:17 PM posted by Flux I don't agree with Simmons that it was intentional. The Colts are still figuring out how to adjust to the adjustments the league has made. The biggest one being that defensive coordinators seem to be telling their linebackers and secondary to never go for the play-fake. They'll concede an extra couple of yards on the runs so that they don't give up the big play. Indy is starting to adjust to that, but more importantly the defenses they have faced are worse. The Colts started off with Baltimore and Jacksonville, 2 strong defenses (plus Jax plays Indy every year and they do a good job). The 49ers game was actually a pretty poor offensive game for Indy, only scoring 21 points despite all the defensive turnovers/sacks. The Indy/New England game coming up will be interesting, but the Colts actually match up pretty well defensively right now with NE struggling to run the ball well. Getting Bruschi back should help their defense tremendously even if he's 80% as good as last year. But a bigger challenge for the Colts I think is Pittsburgh, who will gladly pound that soft Colts run defense as long as possible. Plus Pitt should be able to contain the Colts' offense. Good Colts games coming up, but not for the next two weeks (at Houston, Bye). #: 8:51 AM posted by Anonymous Post a Comment << Home Archives May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2012

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