Pity I didn't go with my second instinct, eh? I picked Denver to win despite looking bad, and Carolina to win in chaotic fashion. Wrong and wrong. In comments though, I considered reversing myself, and really considered it last night, after reading some previews on Football Outsiders and such. I didn't care enough to actually do so, but if I had it would have gone much like this one, from my
post-post comment.
Pittsburgh could come out and score early and quickly, forcing Denver into pass-heavy catch up mode, and their pass rush could get Jake rattled, and he could turn into his old interception-happy gunslinging self by halftime. I can also see Seattle getting their offense in gear, smothering Steve Smith, and quickly taking a 28-3 type of lead.
Which is pretty much what happened in both games. Denver wasn't horrible, they just coughed the ball up too much, and as NE should have taught them last week, you'll lose and shit, doing that in the playoffs. Denver's main problem though is that they play exactly the same style of football as Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh's better at it and has better players for it. Especially when Jake is snaking around in a flashback to his Arizona INT-happy style.
As for the late game... bleh. I woke up at noon, had a quick bite, and headed out to run some errands. Costco and other food stuff, before going to the gym, taking a bath to soak my gym-sore legs, and then working on the computer while the games taped. And thank Dog I had the Car@Sea game on tape, since damn that was a stinker. I suppose Washington was even worse (both games) and NYG when they hosted Carolina did less, but damn that was about the least-prepared offense I've ever seen in a playoff game. It looked like Carolina thought they could come out and do the exact same thing they did the last two weeks, and while NYG and Chi's defensive coaching was poor enough to allow that, Seattle's was not. They smothered Steve Smith, and Carolina's offense didn't appear to do anything Seattle did not expect.
Carolina was consistent at least, since their defense was equally-awful. They couldn't cover anyone, they couldn't stop the run, and they weren't much good at tackling either. I guess that's the downside to playing Manning Jr. and then the Bears' offenses back to back weeks, while sustaining injuries to key defenders. It's nice to win two games, but when you run up against a real offense in the championship game, you're helpless. Just a really unentertaining, mismatch of a game.
It does set up an interesting Super Bowl though, with Pittsburgh and Seattle both looking very strong going in. I question whether Seattle's got the defense to stop Pittsburgh, but they've certainly muzzled Washington and Carolina quite well thus far, so maybe we should give them the benefit of the doubt. Quietly competent defense (Seattle) can be as or more effective than a blitz-happy, terrorizing, flamboyant attack (Pittsburgh). Right? Seattle has a better offense, in theory, since they can run and pass, unlike Pittsburgh (who can only pass in the post season, reputation as a run-happy attack not withstanding). I don't see a line for the SB XL yet, but I'd guess it'll be very close, with Seattle maybe a 1 or 2 point fave, and the line perhaps swaying the other way over the next two weeks, as the huge Steelers' fan base puts their money where their collective hopes and dreams are.
