I pretty much threw darts with my eyes shut last weekend, and came out 2-2 on winners and 1-3 on over/under. Which is, as always, why I don't bet actual money on this sort of thing. I enjoy making the predictions though, even though I'm far too lazy to write up any interesting/funny previews, as approximately 5000 sports sites do. I have not much better of an idea this week than I had last week, but what the hell, I'm going to watch the games, and there are only three more this season, so I might as well make some predictions in advance.
Both road teams, Pittsburgh and Carolina, have played two good road games and won them both, while both home teams had a bye, before eeking out unimpressive home wins against offensively self-destructing visiting teams last week. Can either road team play three good games in a row? They've certainly got the talent, and both games are expected to be quite close, where a single big play or mistake could decide them. Neither home team has lost a home game all season either, though I heard somewhere that both home teams have not won on championship weekend since like 1996. Odds are that one of the underdogs will win this week, or at least cover the spread. But which one, if not both?
Pittsburgh @ Denver: Denver is favored by 3.5 points, with a 41 point over/under. This one opened up as a 3.5 point spread, and has stayed right there, or dropped to 3 points at some casinos. It's an interesting match up too, since Pittsburgh appears to be peaking at the right time, while Denver is still playing largely thanks to New England's self destruct last week. Then again, Denver avoided making mistakes and let NE give them the game, which is a talent in of itself. You can win a surprising/depressing number of football games just by not shooting off your own damn feet.
I've yet to see Denver play a really good game all season, but like I said last week in picking them over New England, "they're not 13-3 by accident." And now they're 14-3, and on Monday they'll be 15-3 and headed to the SuperBowl... in Detroit. Think the lucky teams will wish they could wait and fly in on like the Saturday before the game, rather than spending more than week of media madness on location?
Denver 24, Pittsburgh 20, though the scoring might well go higher with yet more unseasonably-nice weather forecast for the mile high city this weekend.
Carolina @ Seattle: Seattle is favored by 3.5 points, with a 43.5 point over/under. This one opened with Seattle up by 6, a spread that instantly dropped to 4. Not a real sign of confidence in Seattle there. I have to pick one underdog to win, and logically, I should go with Pittsburgh. Carolina's running back is out with a broken ankle, and that should, in theory, make their offense even more one-dimensional than usual. Last week Chicago was amazingly-dumb in their coverage schemes, leaving Steve Smith one on one numerous times, and paying for it repeatedly. I can't believe Seattle will be that dumb, and I'm not confident of Delhomme's ability to beat them with other receivers, and I wasn't impressed that Carolina allowed the moribund Chicago offense to put up over 20 points last week.
All that said, I think Seattle will lose a close one, or win in a blowout. And since I think Denver is going to win another game no one quite believes they can win, and I want to pick one of the underdogs, Carolina it is. Carolina 21, Seattle 20, with Steve Smith catching 14 for 178 yards and 2 TDs, while the Seattle defensive backs look stunned and point at each other.
