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BlackChampagne -- no longer new; improvement also in question.: The Greatest Investment in the History of the World?



Wednesday, October 14, 2009  

The Greatest Investment in the History of the World?


So an art collector bought a painting last year for $19,000, largely on a hunch. Extensive analysis eventually turned up an actual palm print from the artist, a fairly well known Italian artist from the fifteenth century, and bingo, the painting is appraised for one-hundred and fifty million dollars.

There are some nice quotes in the article, too. Nicer than the picture itself, which is entirely unremarkable, and doesn't even approach the quality of work you see in some of Leonardo's seemingly simple sketches. One of which I attached below, for the sake of comparison.
Biro examined multispectral images of the drawing taken by the Lumiere Technology laboratory in Paris, which used a special digital scanner to show successive layers of the work.

"Leonardo used his hands liberally and frequently as part of his painting technique. His fingerprints are found on many of his works," Biro said. "I was able to make use of multispectral images to make a little smudge a very readable fingerprint."

...

Canadian-born art collector Peter Silverman bought "La Bella Principessa" — or "The Beautiful Princess" — at the gallery in New York on behalf of an anonymous Swiss collector in 2007 for about $19,000. New York art dealer Kate Ganz had owned it for about nine years after buying it at auction for a similar price.

One London art dealer now says it could be worth more than $150 million.

If experts are correct, it will be the first major work by Leonardo to be identified in 100 years.

...

Silverman said the Swiss collector first raised suspicions about the drawing, saying it didn't look like 19th century artwork. When Silverman saw it at the Ganz gallery in 2007, he thought it might be a Leonardo, although the idea seemed far-fetched. He hurriedly bought it for his Swiss friend and then started researching it.

"Of course, you say, 'Come on, that's ridiculous. There's no such thing as a da Vinci floating around,'" Silverman said. "I started looking in the areas around da Vinci and all the people who could have possibly done it and through elimination I came back to da Vinci."

...

Silverman described the Swiss collector as a very rich man who has promised to buy him "lunch and dinner and caviar for the rest of my life if it ever does get sold."

...

As for the possibility of finding other Leonardo works, "there are thousands of lost works of Leonardo, mainly pages from codexes or drawings," Vezzosi said, but discovering a lost or undocumented painting would be "much more difficult."
It's mostly a curiosity, since it's not a very good piece and the only value comes from the fame of its alleged artist. (Who created many other wonderful works of art... just not so much this one.) But what a value!

I addressed that in the title of this post, but seriously... if the identification holds, a sale is made, and the appraisal proves accurate, was buying this painting for $19k the best single investment in human history? Plenty of purchases appreciate in value, astronomically in some cases, but have any ever gained so much, so quickly? Stock values sometimes increase by billions in a single day, but that gain is spread over millions of shares, and they usually had some substantial value to begin with. This painting increased in value approximately 7895x, and had an absolutely gain in value of nearly $150,000,000m.

The only thing I can compare it to is a lottery ticket. Those cost about $1, and sometimes pay over $300m on the biggest jackpots in the US. But that's not really a fair comparison since no one (sensible) buys lottery tickets as an investment, and there's no inherent value to a lottery ticket. It's either a winner and worth lots, or (in the vast majority of cases) it's a loser and worth nothing. This painting was worth about $20k, and had been sold for that much in the past. Suddenly, just by changing the artist's identity, it's damn near priceless. And it's an investment since this clever agent just snapped it up for his rich Swiss client, and he brought about the price inflation by researching it and proving the pedigree. Great success to him. Great jealousy for the rest of us.

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Comments:

I'm sure land bought that later turns out to have oil underneith it would be a much greater $ value and % investment.


 

There have been some amazing investments over time in odd places...

Blair Witch project had a (final) budget of $500,000 and made $250,000,000. So thats 500x

Alaska was bought for USD7.2million in 1867 (USD1.1billion in todays money)
but generates USD4.5billion a year in gross state product.

Also curious as to how the numbers add up for some of the domain squatting of big websites, since the record for sale is USD7.5million for Business.com


 

Oil land, or gold mines, are good suggestions. They take a huge amount of expense to operate and produce from though, and only yield their wealth over long spans of time. Though I bet some land speculators have bought land that increased thousands of times in value overnight, when oil was discovered.

Blair Witch cost very little to make, but they spent millions and millions on ads and promotion, so you've got to add that on top of the costs for the distributor. Though they were hugely profitable on the whole. That's true of most independent films that hit big; more money spent on ads than the film itself, by a considerable factor.


 

Also, Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase more than doubled the size of the US for 5 cents an acre, though I don't think there's any way to put a dollar value on what that land is worth today.


 

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